76ers vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
The Dallas Mavericks put their four-game home win streak on the line today against a Philadelphia 76ers team still missing reigning MVP Joel Embiid.
Despite some defensive slippage on a disappointing 1-3 road trip this week, the Mavs are only a game outside the No. 6 seed in the West and are big favorites according to NBA odds.
Philly is treading water without Embiid’s presence on both ends of the floor, but it picked up a much-needed 121-114 victory over the Charlotte Hornets on Friday behind 33 points from Tyrese Maxey.
Check out my 76ers vs Mavericks free NBA picks on March 3 as these teams get the national TV spotlight.
76ers vs Mavericks odds
76ers vs Mavericks predictions
A Dallas Mavericks offense led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving was always likely to deliver fireworks this season, so it’s no surprise to see the Mavs sitting inside the Top 10 in points per game (118.8).
But the larger unknowns are centered around the supporting cast — and that’s where rookie Dereck Lively II has made a big splash, more than justifying the No. 12 pick that Dallas used to draft him last summer.
I’m predicting another standout game for Lively II here. He’s shooting a whopping 75% from the field this season and he’s a perfect 15-for-15 across his last three outings.
Sharing the floor with Doncic is a ticket to a handful of easy buckets every game, and Lively II has shown good instincts around the rim.
It would be a different story if Embiid was healthy, but this version of the Philadelphia 76ers is thin in the frontcourt as Mo Bamba and Paul Reed share the big man minutes. Both are prone to overreacting when ball-handlers drive, and that should create alley oops and layups for the Dallas bigs.
I’m pairing Lively II’s points and rebounds for a little more wiggle room. He hasn’t been a dominant force on the boards lately, but he’s averaging 7.4 rebounds per Game in his rookie season and should be able to pad his numbers today.
My best bet: Dereck Lively II Over 14.5 points + rebounds (+100 at DraftKings)
76ers vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Dereck Lively II Over 14.5 points+rebounds
Luka Doncic Over 10.5 assists
Mavericks -8
All of the Doncic props are appealing given his current hot streak, but I’m leaning towards his playmaking in this spot.
He’s had 11 or more dimes in four of his last five contests and he should be able to get into the paint at will, particularly when hunting mismatches against Maxey or Kyle Lowry.
Only DeMar DeRozan is averaging more minutes than Luka’s 37.4 mpg, and he’s got another big shift ahead here.
I’m also taking the odds for Dallas to cover the spread and turn this into a somewhat lopsided score line. The Mavs can’t afford to give up any more ground in the race to avoid the Play-In, and I expect a better defensive effort after giving up 138 points to the Boston Celtics on Friday.
The 76ers are short on consistent scorers next to Maxey, and Tobias Harris’ 31-point effort against the Hornets doesn’t feel like a sustainable output.
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76ers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
This feels like a good spot for the Mavs after falling short on the road in a tricky Eastern Conference gauntlet this week. Back at home, where they’re 18-13 this season, it’s tough to argue with Dallas being an 8-point favorite.
The visitors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and had fallen short of 105 points in five straight games before a better offensive effort against the Hornets.
To make matters worse, they’ll again be without De’Anthony Melton, who could have soaked up some of the minutes guarding Doncic and Irving, while Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable.
That’s made Lowry’s play even more critical. The veteran guard had 15 points and 10 assists on Friday, but he’s probably past the point where that’s typical production.
While these teams have split their last six meetings, the Under has been a winner in seven of their past eight matchups. It’s also 7-3 in Philadelphia’s last 10 Games.
The Mavs are another story, though. The hosts have hit the Over in three consecutive games, and they’ve given up more than 120 points in each of their past four outings.
76ers vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Mavs have hit the first-half Over in 25 of their last 39 games at American Airlines Center.. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Mavericks.
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76ers vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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