Best NBA Player Props Today - February 2
It's an NBA Friday, which means it's time to find some edges in the NBA odds for player props as you relax and make a dent in your couch while sweating some bets following another workweek.
The NBA announced the reserves for the All-Star team, and notably, the Sacramento Kings were left without anyone representing their squad for the NBA All-Star game.
If De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis weren't already motivated enough to face their former teammate in Tyrese Haliburton on Friday, I'm sure an All-Star game snub will have them out to prove something.
Let's take a closer look at the three NBA player props I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Friday, February 2.
Best NBA player props today
- Zion Williamson Over 4.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
- Paul George 3+ assists (+180 at bet365)
- De'Aaron Fox Over 4.5 assists (-132 at FanDuel)
Picks made on February 2 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for February 2
Prop bet #1: Zion zaps Spurs
My favorite team is the Orlando Magic, and I was watching them play against the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night. Not only was Victor Wembanyama blocking the shots of players on the Magic, but he was also altering their decision-making once they were in the paint.
How is this relevant to the Zion Williamson odds tonight? Williamson will be playing against Wembanyama and the Spurs on Friday when the New Orleans Pelicans hit the road, and his offensive game bears similarities to some of the players on the Magic, such as Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.
If anything, the defensive presence of Wembanyama will be even more disruptive to how Williamson likes to score the ball compared to Wagner and Banchero. Both of the Magic players like to attack the rim and score in the paint, but they also take outside jump shots. Williamson, not so much. He lives in the paint and uses his build and athleticism to bully people at the rim.
While Williamson will still be able to score in the paint, if Wembanyama causes him to hesitate even just a couple of times and look for his teammates, increasing our potential assists, that is a huge boost to this wager.
The 4.5 trading at plus money for the Over is an eye-catching price for Williamson, even if he wasn't playing against someone who could force him to pass the ball more than other teams.
Williamson is projected to have five assists on Friday against the Spurs, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -122, but it is available at bet365 for +105.
Zion Williamson prop: Over 4.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: King George
Paul George had been playing with a minutes restriction of late for the Los Angeles Clippers, which had seen him not exceeding 30 minutes. While this was true for the last handful of games, this might not be the case anymore, and I think the sportsbooks really missed the mark with this price on his assists prop.
On Wednesday, George just flat out sat out against the Washington Wizards instead of playing on a minutes restriction, and now he isn't even on the injury report for Friday. There's a chance that the minutes restriction has been lifted for George, but his assists prop is trading as if he is still on it. The best part about this entire bet is we still have an edge if he is only playing 29 minutes, so this bet would just receive an even bigger boost if he is a full participant in the game.
We've run into a scenario here with George where he was recently going under his assists prop consistently, and then we mixed in a minutes restriction, which just sent his total for assists in a freefall. This has reached a point where we have gone overboard with the adjustment to the Paul George odds, and this is the perfect time to strike because not only might the minutes restriction be off the table, but did I mention he's playing against the Detroit Pistons defense?
The 3+ assists for George is an alternate total, but we have a higher expected value by going after this line. George is projected to have 2.8 assists on Friday against the Pistons, which allows us to price the 3+ assists at -106.
Paul George prop: 3+ assists (+180 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Fantastic Mr. Fox
De'Aaron Fox trading with a total of 4.5 assists in this window for juice is going to be the death of me this season. This is just too good of a number to pass up, and while we have gone back and forth on cashing in on the De'Aaron Fox odds, even the ones he misses, the potential assists are there.
One of the bigger issues with a Fox assists prop is you are heavily reliant on his Sacramento Kings teammates knocking down 3-point shots. Fox also doesn't play with a lob threat at the center position, so he rarely gets easy assists from his teammates at the rim. This is what causes his conversion on his potential assists from game to game to fluctuate so much, and ultimately his total.
The good news for Fox on Friday is that the juice at -132 is the lowest we have seen in a while, and I also think the matchup against the Indiana Pacers will provide him with a massive boost. The Pacers don't offer much resistance at the rim, so while his teammates are more shooters than anything else, a pass to a cutting Harrison Barnes or Domantas Sabonis in the paint should be converted at a higher rate against the Pacers.
The Pacers are also on the tail end of a back-to-back, so there's a chance that someone like Myles Turner, who missed a Game earlier this week with an injury, doesn't play. If Turner is out, this would just open up the lane even more for the Kings and the chance at potential assists being converted at a higher rate for Fox. I'm not banking on this happening, it's just an added layer that could make this -132 price point look even better as we approach tipoff.
Fox is projected to drop 5.6 dimes against the Pacers on Friday, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -184, but it is available at FanDuel at -132.
De'Aaron Fox prop: Over 4.5 assists (-132 at FanDuel)
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