NBA Player Props Today - Best Malcolm Brogdon prop | Pickswise
Another NBA Wednesday, another 12-Game slate, and another injury report to go through with a fine toothed comb….
At first glance, the Mavericks are sitting their big names in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, most of the Thunder are currently questionable and Nikola Jokic is questionable, as well. We have seen 2 glue guys in New York (Ben Simmons and Josh Hart) fill up the stat sheet of late. Simmons had a double-double 2 nights ago and Josh Hart a triple-double last night; it will be fun to monitor these markets as we head into the all-star break and injuries flood the daily reports.
Let’s dive in.
Malcolm Brogdon, PG, POR, Over 16.5 points (-115)
Line available on DraftKings uijh8IXWzWmDKBOok at the time of publishing.
Brogdon is averaging 0.57 points per minute as a starter for the Trail Blazers this season and as a starter in 7 straight Games. In that starting role, his median minutes are roughly ~36, giving us a baseline projection of 20.52 points. However, that’s lofty. I have him closer to 32 minutes tonight and that’s still a projection of 18.48 points — and well above this soft line. It should be at 17.5.
Now we look at the opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks, coming off Doc Rivers’ coaching debut and a loss to the Nuggets on the road. The Bucks continue to struggle defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers this season with a backcourt of Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley. All of the attention will be on Dame returning to Portland, but I just don’t want to bet into that hype — so let’s focus on Brogdon facing the team that drafted him, instead. Brogdon has hit this in 21 of 37 Games (56%) this season and in 16 of 23 as a starter (69%). At home this season, Brogdon is averaging 31.5 minutes and 18 ppg with better shooting from the field and 8 of 11 against this number as a home starter. This is a 1.5u play from me.
30-25-20 Parlay (+1545)
Kevin Durant 30+ Points
Coby White 25+ Points
Malcolm Brogdon 20+ Points
$10 pays $154.50 on FanDuel
Comments
Post a Comment