Jazz vs Knicks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
As much as you assume a Tom Thibodeau team always had a defensive focus, something distinctly shifted in the New York Knicks locker room when they traded for O.G. Anunoby. Since then, the Knicks have trotted out a stifling defense, the best in the NBA and one perhaps only improving.
But now that defense has to face one of the NBA’s best offenses in the same timespan, with the Utah Jazz ranking No. 2 in offensive rating during January.
NBA odds have New York installed as the favorite, but when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, where's the edge? I'll let you know in my free NBA picks for the Jazz vs. Knicks on January 30.
Jazz vs Knicks odds
Jazz vs Knicks predictions
The Utah Jazz may be surging, but there is little decisive trend emphasizing their offense’s sustainability. Utah has gone 10-5 straight up and against the spread this month, rising to .500 and into the Western Conference’s final Play-in spot by doing so. The Jazz are spurred entirely by their offense, ranking behind only the Clippers this month, while Utah’s defense falls into the league’s bottom third.
That kind of imbalance will play into the New York Knicks’ hands tonight, particularly with both teams on the second night of a back-to-back. New York is more well-rounded, simply enough. It ranks No. 7 in offensive rating since O.G. Anunboy first put on the orange-and-blue, an efficiency largely dictated by Jalen Brunson.
Anyone who has watched Brunson knows part of his efficiency comes from controlling the Game’s flow. It may be Thibodeau’s vision, but Brunson deserves the credit. The Knicks rank No. 28 in the NBA in pace this month, the complete opposite of Utah’s No. 1 standing.
What seems more likely on a night with both teams having played last night, that the Jazz offense will remain in high gear and at full speed or that the Knicks will grind things down as they prefer?
Not only is the answer obvious, but it is the exact thing New York has been doing since landing Anunoby as its defensive linchpin. In 15 games since he first arrived, including one in which he did not play, the Under has cashed in 13 of them, with the opposing team total Under cashing in each of those.
Sportsbooks are not catching up quickly enough. Those team total Unders are not cashing by a little bit, they're cashing by double digits. Those 13 team total Unders fell short of their number by an average of 12.8 points. Include the two Overs and the average is still 10.1 points below Vegas expectations.
In four games in the last week, New York has held opponents 11.4 points below their expected totals, even as Miami eked Over its team total.
Betting on the Jazz offense to fall short tonight may be in opposition of its showing for the last month, but few things in the NBA are smarter bets right now than leaning on the Knicks' defense.
My best bet: Jazz team total Under 112.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Jazz vs Knicks same-game parlay
Jazz team total Under 112.5
Lauri Markkanen Under 2.5 made threes
Jalen Brunson Under 32.5 points
Fading Lauri Markkanen from deep obviously fits well with doubting Utah’s ability to score points tonight. To be completely transparent, that kind of correlation severely lowers the value of this SGP, but with both teams on back-to-backs, a few players are not available for prop bets until their availability tonight is publicly certain.
The Knicks have cut into opponent's attempts from deep since Anunoby joined the lineup, ranking No. 21 in the league in frequency of allowed 3-point attempts this month (37.9% of FGAs). Before O.G. showed up, New York was No. 7 with 41.5% of opponent field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. The Knicks have also prevented good looks from range, with opponents shooting only 32.1% from three.
Markkanen is a sharpshooter, but in his third Game in four nights, a bad shooting night would make sense. These are simply realities in the NBA and will remain so as long as the league insists on scheduling crunches like this.
Jalen Brunson’s points prop has escalated this week, mostly because New York is running out of offensive playmakers. Brunson has scored 32 in each of his last two games, helping the Knicks survive Julius Randle’s dislocated shoulder.
But in his third game in four nights, as well, with a reduced pace, there is little reason to expect an all-out explosion from New York's star point guard.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jazz vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread has not moved since opening late Monday night at -4.5 in the Knicks' favor. The New York trend toward Unders may be most distinct, but the Knicks have also gone 12-3 ATS since bringing Anunoby to Manhattan, including 2-1 ATS as two-bucket favorites.
What stands out most about that may be that New York was just 15-15-2 ATS before Anunoby crossed the border. This team elevated in a way that defies one trade. Anunoby simply fits Thibodeau’s design that well.
The total opened at a mispriced 233.5, falling to 230.5 by sunrise and plummeting further to 229 by mid-morning on Tuesday. With the lack of rest heading into this game, that fall makes plenty of sense.
Jazz vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Jazz have gone 5-0 ATS on the second night of their last five back-to-backs. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Knicks.
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Jazz vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KJZZ, MSG |
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