Best NBA Player Props Today - January 27
It’s been a wild week for NBA player props, with four players tallying over 60 points and two of those scoring north of 70. The NBA’s offensive arms race seems to show no sign of stopping any time soon, and I’ve gone with two separate points props as part of my plays today.
When checking the NBA odds for Saturday, January 27, I took a close look at all the matchups and data available to make my three favorite player prop NBA picks for today’s NBA slate.
Best NBA player props today
- Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)
- Victor Wembanyama Over 21.5 points (-115 at SIA)
- Brandon Ingram Under 21.5 points (-110 at SIA)
Picks made on January 27 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for January 27
Prop bet #1: Crossmatch rematch
There were plenty of storylines to go around after Joel Embiid helped lead the Philadelphia 76ers to victory over the Denver Nuggets on January 16. Embiid’s clutch play, the Nuggets falling apart late, Jamal Murray’s turnovers, and more.
But on a tactical level, there was one key storyline that dwarfed the rest. Crossmatching was the defining feature of the first game between these two teams, with both teams trying to outmaneuver the other by having Nikola Jokic and Embiid guarding and being guarded by unconventional options.
Embiid was guarding Aaron Gordon and vice versa, Jokic by Nicola Batum and even Tobias Harris at times. It created a ton of confusion for both teams, but it also allowed Jokic to dominate on the boards. Jokic finished with a season-high 19 rebounds, with 11 coming on the offensive glass.
Jokic was almost always matched up with a much smaller opponent, who he easily beat for rebounding. In pick and roll with Gordon, because Gordon was acting as the roll man, Embiid was dropping and trying to contain his drive. If the shot didn’t go in, Jokic was down in a commanding position underneath to capture the rebound.
Even if Mike Malone slightly reins in some of their more creative and aggressive crossmatching on the defensive end, I don’t expect Nikola’s rebounding to suffer that much.
Embiid is an unusual center because he’s also one of the most gifted shooters alive. Even if Jokic is guarding him one-on-one on the block, when that shot goes up, he’s still in a better position to get that rebound than almost anyone on the court because he has the inside track on Embiid.
With the Over at just 11.5, these Nikola Jokic odds are my favorite bet for Saturday.
Nikola Jokic prop: Over 11.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)
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Prop bet #2: French connection
While Chet Holmgren was the leader in the Rookie of the Year odds race for much of the NBA season, Victor Wembanyama has begun to pull ahead. As Wemby has gotten more comfortable, his production and efficiency are steadily climbing, even as he’s playing under a minutes limit for the Spurs.
Victor is maximizing his time on the court, however. Through 11 games in January, Wemby has a 35.1% usage rate, putting him in the 99th percentile among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass. His scoring has taken a big jump, too, despite his increasingly loose minutes restriction. There is rarely a play in which Wembanyama is not directly involved when he’s on the floor.
Despite his soaring productivity, however, oddsmakers expect Wemby to score three fewer points today in his game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The reason that Rudy Gobert’s such an impactful defender is that in addition to sublime technique, he has an otherworldly reach and moves faster than most other NBA players who are seven feet tall. But Wemby is the exception to the exception. Not only does he dwarf Gobert in height and reach, but he’s also faster, more fluid, and much more dynamic with the ball in his hands.
Docking Wembanyama three full points off his most recent prop line merely because he’s going against Rudy is an overcorrection. The Wolves have a stout defense of course, but the things that make it special apply to normal NBA players, not to Victor. No doubt, Wemby will want to put on a show against his fellow countryman as well.
Wembanyama is averaging 25 points per game over his last 10 and has exceeded this number in nine of those games. These Victor Wembanyama odds are simply giving the Timberwolves' defense too much credit.
Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 21.5 points (-115 at SIA)
Prop bet #3: Ingram’s new leaf
Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans has a reputation as a player in the Kobe Bryant mold. A tough-shot-taker who prefers the mid-range to more analytically friendly shots, with a limited playmaking game. While Ingram became an All-Star playing like that, it’s also a hard way to consistently make opposing defenses pay.
But something has changed with Ingram recently. Both he and Zion Williamson have radically restructured their offensive games, eschewing pure scoring in favor of more playmaking, and it’s seen the Pels rattle off a series of impressive victories.
Ingram’s scoring for the season is at 21.5 points per game, right where this prop is listed. But Brandon has scored below that mark in nine of his last 10 games and is averaging just 15.5 points in that time.
At the same time, his assists are way up. While Ingram has missed some shots, this isn’t just a slump, it seems to be a true shift in the way the Pelicans are emphasizing and using Ingram on offense.
Oddsmakers remain indexed to the previous version of his game, which is why these Brandon Ingram odds are so appealing. The new equal-opportunity offense in New Orleans makes this my last play for Saturday.
Brandon Ingram prop: Under 21.5 points (-110 at SIA)
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