76ers vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
Joel Embiid missed another game last night. And even though the Philadelphia 76ers star center is arguably having an even better season than he was a year ago, he’s seen his NBA MVP odds rise, as he’s only a handful of missed games away from being ineligible.
So, one would think that Embiid would do everything he could to suit up tonight when the Sixers visit Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, they are close to hitting the panic button in Golden State. The Warriors have lost 10 of their last 14 games and sit in 12th place in the Western Conference. Yet the NBA odds have the Dubs as 4.5-point home favorites for this matchup.
If Embiid suits up for this game, there is serious value with Philly as underdogs. I break down this intriguing matchup and bring you the best bet plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Warriors on Tuesday, January 30.
76ers vs Warriors odds
76ers vs Warriors predictions
Let’s be clear, I have no inside information about whether or not Joel Embiid plays this Game. The line of Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 tells me books expect him to sit out another Game because I would never have Embiid as an underdog in this matchup with the way the Golden State Warriors are playing lately. That said, it is being reported that Embiid will go through warmups to see if he can give it a go tonight.
But the chance of him playing and getting in early with the +4.5 is too tempting for me to pass up.
Embiid can certainly hear the chatter and likely knows he’ll be unable to defend his NBA MVP Award if he misses just five more games this season. My thinking that Embiid will give it a go tonight is simple.
Before last night’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers (which the Sixers clearly in no way cared about), it sounded like Embiid (and Tyrese Maxey for that matter) were both planning to play. But they didn’t in hopes they could beat the Blazers without their star players, giving them an extra day of rest before this back-to-back against the Warriors.
Tyrese Maxey has been ruled out tonight, but if Embiid plays we are getting some great value with the Sixers.
Following his 70-point performance, it looked like Embiid was cruising toward a second consecutive NBA MVP Award and was the +100 favorite just a few days ago. He leads the NBA in scoring at 36 points per game while adding 11.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game.
He leads a 76ers team that sits in third place in the Eastern Conference with a 29-15 record and ranks third in the Association in net rating. Everyone associates the Sixers with Embiid and their great offense, but don’t overlook their defense.
Philly ranks seventh in defensive rating and sixth in opponent-effective field goal percentage. But what makes them a bad matchup for Golden State is their perimeter defense. They lead the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and allow the second-fewest made threes per game.
That’s not good for the Warriors, because shooting threes is pretty much all they do well these days. Stephen Curry & Co. have just four wins since Christmas Day. They rank dead last in defensive rating, 29th in opponent field goal percentage, and are surrendering an NBA-worst 125.8 points per game over that stretch.
Usually, it’s the Warriors making it rain, not the other way around. But there’s no getting around it, those numbers are ugly. If Embiid plays this line could move to closer to a pick 'em.
But keep an eye out on Embiid's status and feel free to avoid this bet if it makes you uncomfortable. Like I said, I’m trying to get out in front here. If Embiid doesn’t play I would certainly consider cashing out if your book allows it.
My best bet: 76ers +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
76ers vs Warriors same-game parlay
76ers +4.5
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 threes
76ers team total Over 115.5
As per usual our same-game parlay tips off with my best bet, which for this matchup is the 76ers covering the spread as 4.5-point underdogs. Once again, this SGP is predicated on the idea that Embiid will suit up.
If the Sixers have close to their full roster, then their 3-point defense should be imposing, even against the Splash Bros. Klay Thompson has been all or nothing the last few games from beyond the arc. He’s hit two or fewer 3s twice and five or more twice in his last four games. At plus money, it’s worth adding Under 3.5 threes for Thompson in this matchup.
If Embiid goes, there is no way the Warriors' non-existent defense is keeping the 76ers Under their team total in this one. Close the SGP out with Philly Over 115.5 team total.
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76ers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for this game is a very interesting one. The 76ers, despite ranking third in the NBA in net rating compared to 17th for the Warriors, opened as 3.5-point underdogs. That’s where the line remained most of the day.
But on Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that Embiid would be listed as questionable for the game while Maxey was ruled out, and the line moved to 4.5. Embiid will go through pregame warmups to see if he can play. This line will move again depending on his status.
If you think he gives it a go, take the points with the Sixers. If you think he sits another one out, have a look at the Warriors. As I broke down above, I’m taking the points but considering cashing out if Embiid doesn't play.
The total hasn’t seen much movement, sitting at 235 after opening at 235.5. Once again, if Embiid plays, I would lean Over because the Warriors can’t stop anyone from getting buckets these days.
We also just saw a abysmal Portland Trail Blazers offense put up 130 points against the Sixers without Embiid and Maxey. So, the Over may be the play either way.
76ers vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Warriors are 7-17-1 ATS when playing as a favorite this season. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Warriors.
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76ers vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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