Best NBA Player Props Today - December 31
The NBA odds slate has six games to schedule for Sunday, December 31, so let’s make the most of the last chance to pad our bankrolls this calendar year.
Before you break out the champagne bottles, I’m here to send you off into 2024 in style with my final suite of NBA picks for 2023.
Where are the best NBA player props values for New Year’s Eve?
Best NBA player props today
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 steals (+150 at bet365)
- Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 blocks (+123 at Unibet)
- De’Aaron Fox Over 3.5 threes (-115 at bet365)
Picks made on December 31 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for December 31
Prop bet #1: SGA steals the show
The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling, and lead guard Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is a legitimate MVP candidate. Most of the praise heaped on Shai is directed towards his unique herky-jerky style amd his stop-and-go scoring ability that wrongfoots every opponent he clashes with.
But over the last two seasons, Shai’s defense has been where he’s shown the greatest growth. When the Thunder made the playoffs during the season that Chris Paul was with the team, Shai was a massive liability against the Houston Rockets. He wasn’t strong enough, he got blown by in isolation constantly, and just generally wilted against the intensity.
Plenty of guards don’t improve much from that standard, particularly when they become one of the best offensive players alive. But not Shai.
SGA has diligently improved on defense and is now not just capable of holding his own against opposing guards, but also guarding wings one-on-one and making endless plays off the ball.
In part, that’s why Shai is leading the NBA in steals. But really, he’s not just leading, he’s lapping the field. SGA currently has 72 steals on the season, while Matisse Thybulle with 52 total, is second. He has nearly 50% more than the person trailing him, which is as dominant a lead as you’ll see in any NBA counting stat.
I think Shai is a good bet to rack up at least three steals on Sunday as the Thunder play the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are an odd collection of players, made up mostly of 3-and-D wings.
They have shooters and defenders, but few players who are strong dribblers, and numerous weak passers. They don’t have one elite ball handler who runs the show, giving SGA plenty of chances to intercept and disrupt what passes they do attempt.
Shai has had three or more steals in five of his last 10 games and is averaging 2.9 in that time as well. While not from a sure thing, the significant plus money value on these Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds easily make it one of my three favorite prop bets on today’s board.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Over 2.5 steals (+150 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Victor in brief
Over the three Games since Wemby has been under his new minutes limit, which seems to be set at around 24 minutes per Game, he’s averaged five blocks per Game and has had at least three in each contest. I think he’ll keep that up against the Boston Celtics today.
Wemby might be the only legitimate threat to block Kristaps Porzingis’ shot in the NBA. KP has prioritized catching and driving to diversify his attack this season. He’s getting all the way to the rim more. Most players who get blown by the Latvian All-Star don’t bother giving chase, as once he gets one stride ahead the race is functionally over.
That won’t be the case for Wembanyama, and I think we could see him shock Porzingis with the speed of his recoveries in those spots. The number of players Victor has already stunned this season with his ability to block shots they thought were untouchable grows every game.
Victor’s 5.2% block percentage trails only Walker Kessler of the Utah Jazz, and now that he’s playing center full time, he should pass him for league lead over the course of the season.
The Boston Celtics are a team that favors 3-point shooting, but they also make some ill-advised drives at times too, which should play into these Victor Wembanyama odds. This is the first time Boston has played against the Spurs this year, and every team that plays Wemby goes through an adjustment period when faced with his impossible length and quickness.
Victor Wembanyama Over prop: Over 2.5 blocks (+123 at Unibet)
Prop bet #3: Outfoxed from the perimeter
A popular meme format is to take a star player with a specific set of skills and gift them a skill they’re missing at an elite level. Someone playing that game with De’Aaron Fox and gifting him Klay Thompson-level shooting is about the only way I can explain the absolutely game-changing growth that Fox has shown for the Sacramento Kings this season.
Fox has always been a speed demon, great with the ball in his hands at attacking the rim and hitting shots in the 12 to 15 feet range. His 3-point shot has never been super high volume, and it’s waxed and waned every season, only consistent in its inconsistency.
But now the shooting leap is fully here. Fox is taking just shy of nine threes per Game, a jump from five last season and far and away the most of his career. He’s taking way more pull up jump shots as well, comfortably stepping into threes off the bounce in transition to devastating effect.
He’s also working diligently off the ball to break free for corner threes more frequently and sets to get him a look in the corner are a growing staple of the Kings offense. He’s married this giant jump in volume to a 40.4% hit rate, after averaging around 31% over the three seasons prior.
No NBA team is well-equipped to guard Fox now. He was already arguably the fastest guard in the NBA, and now the sheer area of the court where he is a threat has grown so much. But the Memphis Grizzlies are among the worst possible matchups.
Not only do they concede a ton of opponent threes, but their best guard defender, Marcus Smart, is just not nearly fast enough to keep up with Fox flying off picks. Fox is averaging 4.5 threes over his last 10 and has 15 makes in just his last two games combined.
These De’Aaron Fox odds are more than appealing enough for my last prop bet for New Year's Eve.
De’Aaron Fox Over prop: Over 3.5 threes (-115 at bet365)
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