Best NBA Player Props Today - December 27
We may be in no man's land between Christmas and New Year's, but the NBA is rolling ahead with another batch of interesting games on Wednesday, December 27.
With six games to choose from, I’ve surveyed the NBA odds for each matchup to pick my three favorite NBA player props for today’s slate.
Let's fill out our bet slip with our favorite NBA picks.
Best NBA player props today
- Randle Over 9.5 rebs (-120 at bet365)
- Holmgren Over 2.5 blocks (+150 at bet365)
- Maxey Under 29.5 pts (+100 at bet365)
Picks made on December 27 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for December 27
Prop bet #1: Randle muscles OKC
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a spirited win against the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. It was a statement win for the Thunder, who have struggled against teams with size for multiple seasons running.
The Thunder are overall the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Per Cleaning the Glass, they rank dead last in defensive rebounding and third worst on the offensive glass. I’m betting that New York Knicks forward Julius Randle can press his club's advantage on the boards.
Playing a physical team like the Timberwolves takes a toll. The Knicks aren’t as big as the Wolves, but they squeeze every drop out of the length and height they do have.
Randle is only 6-foot-9, but he’s an elite rebounder on both ends for forward. With Mitchell Robinson out, he’s getting a boost to the number of system rebounds that fall into his hands as well. He’s averaged just shy of nine rebounds a game since Robinson went out of the lineup on December 11.
Randle is averaging only 6.4 boards over his last five Games, but that’s mostly dragged down by a four-rebound outing against the Los Angeles Clippers on December 16. That was a road back-to-back after a grueling win over the Phoenix Suns, and nobody had any juice whatsoever.
This time it is the Knicks who have the rest advantage, and I don’t think these Julius Randle odds have accounted enough for that fact.
Julius Randle prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Chet yourself
Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama seem destined to seesaw in front of one another in the race for NBA Rookie of the Year all season long, with whoever is coming off the most recent, gaudier performance taking the temporary lead. While they share similar body types and a high level of overall skill, they play the Game very differently except in one respect: blocking shots.
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to suggest that both Wemby and Chet may indeed be generational shot-blockers. Chet for his part has 75 blocks through 28 career games, enough for 3.2 blocks on average. He’s up to 3.7 over his last 10 and has three games in that span where he had six or more.
These are historic numbers, but Chet makes it look routine. The beauty of his shot-blocking game is his anticipation. He knows exactly where to be and meets his opponents at the apex of their shot attempt. He’s not just blocking guys attacking the rim either, having already blocked some of the NBA’s elite shooters including Damian Lillard.
The Knicks struggle with the combination of mobility and rim protection that Chet brings at the five. None of Randle, RJ Barrett, or Isaiah Hartenstein are effective volume 3-point shooters, so opponents shrink the floor and dare them to win at the rim.
Randle is so physically dominant that he usually just bullies his way there, but Chet’s strength is the ability to get knocked off his spot by a stronger player and fight back into the play in time to still make the block.
He’s had at least three blocks in seven of his last 10 Games, so getting significant plus money value on these Chet Holmgren odds is a steal.
Chet Holmgren prop: Over 2.5 blocks (+150 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Maxed out
Tyrese Maxey is still the frontrunner in the Most Improved Player odds, but outside of a couple of hot games recently, he hasn’t been nearly as consistently a high-impact offensive player as he was in November.
Maxey is down to 23.8 points per Game over his last 10, and after flirting with a true shooting in the mid-60s, he’s down to a still respectable but far from elite 58.2%.
Despite these high Tyrese Maxey odds, he’s also only scored 30 or more points in three of his last 10 outings. It seems odd to project him to supersede his recent average by so much on Wednesday when he’ll be going against Jalen Suggs, arguably the best guard defender in the NBA.
While nobody in the NBA is quick enough to beat Maxey in a foot race, what Suggs can do is wear him out with his play off the ball throughout the rest of the game. The times Maxey has underperformed most drastically of late, heavy legs seem to have played a role.
Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 29.5 points (+100 at bet365)
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