Mavericks vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
The red-hot Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets collide tonight as the NBA In-Season Tournament tips off — and it doesn’t get much better than a Luka Doncic-Nikola Jokic matchup on launch day.
The NBA odds have the Nuggets as clear favorites, but Doncic and the unbeaten Mavericks are off to an outstanding start. Dallas didn’t need quite as much Luka magic on Wednesday night as Tim Hardaway Jr. and Grant Williams combined for 49 points in a win over the Bulls.
Still, this is by far the biggest test yet for the Mavs as they take on the defending champs on the road. The Nuggets are coming off their first loss of the year — a 110-89 thumping against the Timberwolves — but a bounce-back win is likely to be one of the popular NBA picks in Friday’s schedule.
Read on for our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs Nuggets on November 3.
Mavericks vs Nuggets odds
Mavericks vs Nuggets predictions
With Kyrie Irving questionable again tonight for the Dallas Mavericks, there’s every chance that Luka Doncic is going to continue his sky-high usage rate — currently at 33.8%, the third highest in the league though slightly down on his 2022/23 usage.
While that brings all of the Doncic props into play, I’m zoning in on his assists. Surrounded by sharpshooters like Grant Williams, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Seth Curry, there are some lethal outlets for Luka when he gets into the paint and collapses the defense.
Always a willing passer, Doncic has been in elite playmaking mode so far this season, averaging 9.8 assists a game and dishing out 10 dimes against Chicago on Wednesday. That was already his third outing this season with double-digit assists.
Doncic’s minutes have climbed in the past two games with Irving out — up to 40 minutes against the Bulls and Grizzlies — and I like his chances of serving up at least nine dimes tonight with the ball in his hands so often.
His pick-and-roll pairing with impressive rookie Dereck Lively II has been one of the early-season pluses for Dallas, and Jason Kidd has done a nice job with his rotations to keep at least two steady 3-point shooters on the floor around Luka.
Doncic went past this assists number in three of the Mavericks’ four games against the Denver Nuggets last season, and I see Luka pulling the strings for Dallas again here, even if Kyrie is back alongside him.
My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists (+105)
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Mavericks vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 rebounds
Over 225.5 points
I’m doubling down on star power by adding a Nikola Jokic prop to my Doncic pick. The big Serbian has had double-digit rebounds in every game this season and, with his lower back pain not expected to be a major factor, I see him outmuscling this Dallas frontcourt. Whether it’s Lively II or Dwight Powell guarding him, Jokic is going to have an edge on the boards and a path to 12 or more rebounds.
With two offensive juggernauts going toe-to-toe here, give me the Over on the total as well. Dallas is averaging 122.5 points a game — the third-best mark in the NBA — while the Nuggets had scored 110 points or more in three of their first four games before the offensive dud in Minnesota.
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Mavericks vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
Based on the first two weeks of the season, this is a heavyweight clash. The Nuggets have barely missed a beat in the first 10 days of their title defense, while the Mavericks have moved on from the embarrassment of missing the playoffs last season with a relentless start of their own.
Both teams enter with some injury question marks, but all signs point to Jokic and Jamal Murray (both probable) being good to go. There’s likely more concern in the Dallas camp, with the visitors sweating on the health of Irving, who’s missed the last two games with a foot injury.
I’m chalking up Denver’s loss in Minnesota to an off night. Murray and Michael Porter Jr. combined to shoot 7-for-27 from the field and I expect a bounce-back performance from both here. The Nuggets are formidable at Ball Arena and they’ve won both home Games this season by eight points or more.
These teams had a 2-2 split in their four meetings last season, with one of Dallas’ wins coming on the road in Denver, but it’s tough to see the Mavericks keeping pace with this Nuggets offense if Doncic is a solo act. Denver has enough dogged defenders to make him work for his points, starting with Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
I’ve already taken the Over in my SGP and that number feels low enough to cash in even if there are some injury limitations.
The Mavericks lead the league in 3-point attempts per game and they’re knocking down their triples at a 41% clip, but the Nuggets are rolling too and their 50.8% field goal percentage is the best in the NBA. That feels like a formula for an offensive clinic tonight.
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Mavericks vs Nuggets betting trend to know
When Jokic plays, the Nuggets’ moneyline is 43-5 at home (including the playoffs) since the start of the 2022/23 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
Mavericks vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Friday, November 3, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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