Jazz vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
When the Phoenix Suns retooled their team this offseason around Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, the potential was obvious. Adding Bradley Beal and enough shooting to the mix was a recipe for one of the most explosive offenses we’ve ever seen.
The only thing that could stop them from being an inner circle contender appeared to be the recent injury track record of their new star trio. And already that concern has been validated, with Booker and Beal both missing Thursday’s Game against the Los Angeles Lakers and now the real possibility that they’re both out again against the Utah Jazz on Saturday, October 28.
My NBA picks for the Jazz vs. Suns believe Phoenix’s injuries and Utah’s odd lineups will lead to them going Under the total NBA odds have set.
Jazz vs Suns odds
Jazz vs Suns predictions
The Phoenix Suns have the potential to be an All-Time great NBA offense, but through two games of the NBA season, that’s all it so far. Potential.
And that’s all it should remain, with the news that Bradley Beal will miss his third consecutive game while Devin Booker is also likely to miss his second in a row. With Booker officially listed as doubtful and the Suns at home, I’m banking on Phoenix not rushing him back and potentially aggravating his foot injury.
The Suns team stripped this team down to spare parts around the trio of Kevin Durant, Booker, and Beal to make the salaries work, and what’s left when two of the three are out is just not all that impressive. But I’m not betting on a Utah Jazz cover today either, because I have my reasons to also be skeptical of their offense.
The Jazz roster has a starting unit of Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Walker Kessler, Jordan Clarkson, and Talen Horton-Tucker. That is two total non-shooters at point guard and center as well as shaky shooting from Collins at the four.
You rarely see a team play with such limited spacing in the modern NBA. It’s not a good process when your best shooter is also your best player, and in Utah's case, any play that features Clarkson or Lauri on the ball leaves defenses with only one player they need to guard behind the arc. That equation doesn’t change much with second-unit substitutions, as Kris Dunn is the point guard off the bench.
The Suns are going to swarm Lauri and Clarkson and cheat into the paint against everyone else. They’ll have the energy to do so, but the Jazz are coming off the heels of a game last night against the Los Angeles Clippers that took a monumental effort to close out.
This line has also shot up three points since opening, and I’m always keen to take the points and bet against the public when it makes sense. With Durant forced to run a solo act on offense again and the Jazz on dead legs going with wonky spacing, I like Under at 224.5 as my best bet for Saturday.
My best bet: Under 224.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Jazz vs Suns same-game parlay
Under 224
Suns ML
Durant Over 33.5 pts
While I don’t love the value of Suns -5.5 or -6, I do think they have enough to win this game given the homecourt and the rest advantage they have over Utah. Some of what the Jazz do well is not likely to impact Phoenix's game that much, including their ability to defend the paint.
Lauri and Kessler provide great rim protection, but the Suns are not a team overly concerned with getting to the basket. They’re a jump shooting team and that requires closing out hard, which can be difficult on heavy legs.
Durant for his part will once again be expected to put in a superhuman performance to get this win and will do so.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jazz vs Suns and Over/Under analysis
The line for Jazz at Suns opened at -5.5 in favor of the Suns and it’s hovering between that and -6.
Utah was one of the surprise success stories of last season until it took its foot off the gas after the All-Star break. The Jazz caught a lot of teams napping, which is why they owned one of the best against the spread records at 47-33-2.
And while many of the major parts are unchanged, key roster additions such as John Collins and the departure of Mike Conley mean this team looks and plays much differently than the one that had so much success last year.
The total for Saturday’s contest opened at 221.5 last night but that’s steadily risen to where it is this morning at between 223.5 and 224.5. I’m expecting some stagnant and tired offense from Utah in this one, and while the Suns might ride a hot start from Durant, he’ll likely fade some in the latter portion of the game when he’s asked to do everything.
Both of Phoenix’s games so far this season have gone Under, and both totals were well under this mark. The Jazz were a Top 10 offense last season, but losing Mike Conley and shifting Collins into the starting unit makes me doubt they get to that same level this year.
Jazz vs Suns betting trend to know
Both of the Suns' games have gone Under to start the season. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Suns.
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Jazz vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, October 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
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