Best NBA Player Props Today - October 29
We’re just a handful of days into the NBA season, and the storylines are popping all over the country with stars in new places, rookies breaking television rating records, and the fight to be best in the West being just as grueling as expected with all of the talented teams.
With the NBA odds a little tough to gauge as we get an idea about just how good these teams are, let’s lean on a pair of high-flying guards and a rookie with superstar potential who has an intriguing matchup for our NBA player prop plays today.
Keep reading for my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for October 29.
Best NBA player props today
- Damian Lillard Over 30.5 points
- De’Aaron Fox Over 32.5 points + assists
- Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 points
Picks made on October 29 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for October 29
Prop bet #1: There's nothing like Dame
It’s still taking getting used to seeing Damian Lillard outside of Portland, especially when watching him play with Giannis Antetokounmpo. It’s freak time in Milwaukee, and one game into the season it looks like it’s paying off.
In the opener against Philadelphia, Dame wasn’t short on touches with 20 shots in 37 minutes and another 17 free throw attempts, keeping consistent with his career averages. It doesn’t look like playing with Giannis will diminish his numbers, and his debut was about as good as it gets, finishing with 39 points, eight rebounds, and four assists.
Last season with the Trail Blazers, Lillard had the fifth highest usage rate of players who played at least 50 games at 33.1%. While joining Giannis — who led the category at 37.3% — was always a concern for his usage, he was still at 30% against the 76ers.
The good times with the Bucks should continue in the second game of the season with an advantageous matchup for Lillard against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks are giving up 121 points per game through the first two games of the season and are struggling to defend guards. The New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets guards averaged 24 points per game against the Hawks, including a 31-point performance from Jalen Brunson.
Given Trae Young’s defensive struggles, Lillard’s poised to put up plenty of points, especially with how quickly he’s fit in with Milwaukee.
Damian Lillard prop: Over 30.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: For Fox's sake
Coming off their first playoff appearance since 2005-06, the Sacramento Kings are going to be in the thick of the race in the West thanks to De’Aaron Fox’s propensity for playmaking.
The 2023 NBA All-Star took his Game to another level last season averaging 28.5 points and five assists per Game and with the Los Angeles Lakers coming to town, he’ll be in position to hit the Over 32.5 points and assists.
Last season, Fox averaged 33.5 combined points and assists and hit Over 32.5 in 36 of 73 games (49%) because he’s one of the highest usage players in the NBA. His 28.8% usage rate was 11th-highest among NBA players who played at least 70 games.
The offense in Sacramento runs through Fox and the Lakers will have D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reeves trying to slow him down. Both have a career 108 defensive rating. The Lakers are middle-of-the-pack so far this year, allowing 35.4% on 3-pointers. Fox is willing to shoot them, with five per game last season.
While L.A. is 1-1 this season and has held starting guards to a relatively low output of 15.5 points per game, they haven’t dealt with an All-Star like Fox yet at point guard.
Through the first two games of the season, Fox is playing 36 minutes per game, putting up 23 shots per game, and getting to the free throw line 6.5 times per game. At this pace, he’s putting up five more shots a game than last season and three more three pointers. Fox is seventh in the NBA in touches.
With his usage, the defensive struggles of the Lakers backcourt, and the team relying on him as the go-to playmaker, Fox can top that 32.5 combined points and assists line.
De’Aaron Fox prop: Over 32.5 points + assists (-115 at bet365)
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Prop bet #3: Wembanyama works his will
After a quiet opening game, the No. 1 pick took his play up a notch against the Houston Rockets on Friday. Victor Wembanyama finished with an impressive 21 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks, and two steals in the San Antonio Spurs’ overtime win.
His length and willingness to stretch the floor stood out and reaffirmed that this team runs through him and Devin Vassell.
While we’re only two games into the season, Wemby is sitting seventh in the NBA in paint touches per game. The Spurs want him working down low while also stepping out and shooting 3s to keep defenses honest.
San Antonio is 12th in the NBA in paint points per game at 51, and the Los Angeles Clippers have been middling when it comes to stopping inside scoring. They’re 16th in the league at 50 points per game.
With a defensive rating of 113.9 this season, Ivica Zubac will be a liability trying to defend a versatile big man like Wemby when the Spurs work to get that matchup. Against the Utah Jazz, the Clippers couldn’t contain the size and shooting combination of Lauri Markkanen, who finished with 35 points and hit five of 13 3-pointers.
As long as Wemby is willing to continue to work in the paint while stepping behind the arc to pull up from time to time, he’s going to find opportunities for points. He’s not been shy when it comes to 3-pointers either, he’s shot 5.5 per game so far.
Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 17.5 points (-110 at bet365)
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