Best MLB prop bets for today 7/22: Chase Anderson hit around by Miami
With the resumption of Mets vs Red Sox from yesterday, and 15 more full games on tap for today, MLB fans are lined up for a day of entertainment. There are wonderful pitching matchups including Logan Gilbert vs Kevin Gausman, and Grayson Rodriguez vs Shane McClanahan, but my best bet comes in perhaps the worst starting pitching matchup of the day. Let’s dive in!
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Chase Anderson (Rockies) over 4.5 hits allowed (-155) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 (then would pivot to Marlins first 5-inning team total over 2.5).
Chase Anderson against the 2023 version of Johnny Cueto is easily the least-enticing starting pitcher matchup on today’s slate, unless you like offense. Cueto has struggled in the minor leagues all season, posting a 10.24 ERA across 29 minor-league innings, spanning time in both AA and AAA. He isn’t even the pitcher I decided to fade in this Game, however, as I love the matchup for the Marlins offense against the Rockies right-hander. Anderson will make his 12th start and 14th appearance of the season today, and his results have truly been terrible at times. He tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Yankees in his last start, but that Yankees’ offense ranks dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching since June 1.
The Marlins are a far more comPetent group and are an offense that has already got to Anderson this season. Their first matchup with him resulted in 8 hits across 5.2 innings of work spanning just 70 pitches. His workload has since increased, throwing 85 or more pitches in 5 of his last 7 outings. The only times he didn’t reach that threshold were performance related, allowing 7 hits and 5 runs to Houston and 10 hits with 9 runs to the Angels. Before his solid start against New York, Anderson had allowed 5 or more hits in 6 straight starts with 6 or more in 5 of those outings.
Anderson struggles against either handedness, which is massive for this prop. Against right-handed batters he has allowed a .296 batting average and .891 OPS. Against left-handers he has allowed a .289 batting average and .901 OPS. Overall, Anderson ranks just 13th percentile in xBA, 12th percentile in xSLG, and 31st percentile in barrel rate. Dealing with Luis Arraez atop the batting order is never an easy task with his .373 batting average leading all of baseball. Bryan De La Cruz was 3-3 in the first matchup against Anderson and enters this game in good form with 6 hits in his last 4 games. I didn’t expect Jon Berti in the lineup today, but he is slotted into the 9th spot, adding another .268 hitter against right-handed pitching this season. Jesus Sanchez and Joey Wendle both have averages of .253 or higher vs RHP this year while Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler provide solid power threats.
Anderson has struggled with walks in recent seasons but has shown improvement in that area with a decreased BB% and increased zone rate. With the Marlins’ 3rd-lowest BB% against RHP since June 1, there should be plenty of balls in play, and with Anderson’s batted-ball profile that should lead to 5 or more hits.
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Reid Detmers (Angels) over 6.5 strikeouts (-115) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Reid Detmers has had two tough matchups in a row, facing the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros while staying under this 6.5 mark in both outings. He draws a far more favorable matchup today, however, as the Pittsburgh Pirates come to town. The Pirates have struggled with left-handed pitching lately and are striking out at an alarming rate. In the last 30 days they have faced 7 left-handed starting pitchers with a league-worst 31.7% strikeout rate and wRC+ of 63. One of them was Kyle Nelson for only 1.2 innings as an opener while Alex Wood was on a pitch count as well, lasting only 3.2 innings of work. The other 5 starters destroyed them, though, with Braxton Garrett (13), Jesus Luzardo (9), Blake Snell (10), Julio Urias (8), and Logan Allen (8) putting up hefty strikeout totals. Granted, those are quality arms and many are strikeout artists, but Detmers qualifies in both of those categories.
The 10th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft has flashed serious strikeout upside this season and recorded 8 or more punch outs in 5 straight games before his last 2 starts. Even his last start against Houston saw 6 strikeouts recorded while generating a 12.8% swinging strike rate against an Astros lineup that doesn’t often whiff. That 12.8% mark was actually the lowest he has had in a game since June 20, and a full 1.0% lower than his 13.8% for the season, which ranks in the 83rd percentile. Detmers records 1.24 strikeouts per inning pitched which ranks in the 84th percentile. With 6 or more innings pitched in 4 of his last 5 starts he seems to have moved past his short leash and improved his efficiency. He generates his strikeouts in a variety of ways as well. His 4-seam fastball leads his arsenal with 42.6% usage and has accounted for 32 of his 113 strikeouts, typically thrown up in the zone for whiffs. Elevating his fastball with consistency has helped his curveball gain deception as they follow the same flight path out of the hand before his curveball breaks 63.2 inches vertically, 4.4 more than league average. That pitch has amassed 21 strikeouts with a 33.3% whiff rate.
Detmers’ best strikeout pitch, however, is his slider that he uses against either handedness. The whiff rate and put-away rate spike on that pitch against right-handed batters, which is crucial for today’s matchup. The Pirates typically stack right-handed bats against lefty pitchers regardless of splits from that pitcher, and we could even see a lineup comprised solely of right-handed bats. As a whole Detmers has a 31.3% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season, and just 19.8% against lefties. The Pirates also have a youthful lineup with Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Endy Rodriguez, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero potentially all in the order. Austin Hedges, who is unlikely to start tonight, and Carlos Santana are the only active Pirates with head-to-head history against Detmers which should favor the pitcher, especially the first time through the order. Detmers also gets home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski who tends to favor pitchers with close calls off the plate for strikes.
You can also check out our MLB mega parlay for today’s slate.
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